Jobs of the Future
When co-pilot drafts this for me his/her concentration is on technological advancements driving change. It is all about AI whereas my experience with AI to date has been disappointing. Despite their advanced intelligence, robots remain fundamentally machines. You might have to wait half an hour on the phone to speak to a human, but the human will only take 15 seconds to give you the answer. The bots learning rarely extends beyond FAQ’s. Where AI is most successful it is in assisting humans.
Co-pilot will tell us that the jobs of the future are associated with robotics, quantum physics, block chain developers, health and biotechnical specialists etc. Certainly, these people will be the stars of the future, but very few of us have these capabilities nor could we develop them.
Soon, the elderly population will increase significantly. What are the needs of these individuals? They can be categorized into two groups: those who have saved for their retirement and those who have not, possibly due to circumstances beyond their control.
We hear more about those in the second category, since current generation of politicians seem to care about the have nots, even though I have found since coming back to Australia, that Centrelink cheating is widespread. Even if they are in this category, people will be lined up at Centrelink counters waiting patiently before being allowed to air their grievances.
However, this article does not focus on them. There will be many older people who require increasing levels of support from their communities. They no longer drive; they will need to be driven by public transport or by taxis etc. They no longer want to cook and will eat out more often or get take away food. They need to stay engaged and will form book clubs and join libraries. Technology will get more complex, increasing the demand for technicians who understand PCs or can research solutions.
The people who have saved wisely have additional needs. They will want to travel; do the trips they have been dreaming of for years. They will get the house cleaned regularly, get a gardener in because they can’t handle the ride-on-mower and can’t stoop to tend the garden they used to love. Automatic checkout systems at supermarkets confuse them. They used to enjoy a chat with the lady at the checkout and it is certain that pilferage has gone up with the self-checkout. And remember when the banks gave you coins or the personal service you got at your bank which caused you to shift allegiance when you wanted to upsize instead of downsizing.
What do all of these service workers have in common? They need to be pleasant, and if so, they will be in demand. Old people are often cranky; the older you are the crankier you become. And dealing with the cranky older person takes patience and good humour.
But to attract the right type of service people, employers will have to pay more. Will not this be inflationary? Not necessarily. For most of the time since World War II average weekly earnings have risen faster than inflation; in recent years they have not. What rise is needed? My judgement is that in the first year, the wage increase should match the inflation rate, followed by a one percent real-term rise annually.
Surely, that must increase inflation. Not necessarily. Recent policies instituted by the reserve bank concerning credit card surcharges have led to about two percent of these surcharges being transferred to consumers. In some cases, credit card machines may add 10% or 20% as a surcharge. While tipping is not mandatory, social expectations may influence individuals to tip. I am not against tipping. When service was good, food was delicious and restaurant personnel treated you as friends, Impossible? It is happening every day.
And there is the additional tax from increased wages. Sound like Regan omics. Maybe. This worked due to the Keynesian effect.
So, there you have it: Jobs of the Future. I must acknowledge, a snatch of an interviewer Liu Xin of CGTN with a Swiss economist. I only heard it for fifteen secs or less, but it impressed me.
Barry Trembath
22/03/25